Assad Falls; U.$. Reshapes the Mideast

Damascus, the capital of Syria, fell to militia forces on 8 December 2024. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’ath government in Syria is another setback for the resistance to U.$.-I$rael aggression in the region. The last half century has also demonstrated the limitations of bourgeois nationalism in the Levant. While, Syria has been the center of meddling by the imperialists and regional powers for decades, the Ba’ath government’s failure is due to the bourgeois class’ nature as a self-interested minority that cannot fully represent the interests of the nation.

The current civil war started during the so-called “Arab Spring” in 2011. Popular protests that year led to state suppression of many of the more progressive forces. Meanwhile funding via U.$. proxies (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) helped prop up extremist Sunni-affiliated militias. In the chaos that ensued, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria(ISIS) arose to control most of Syria in terms of area and parts of Iraq by 2014. At this point, the United $tates teamed up with the Kurdish nationalist movement in Syria to form the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to prevent ISIS from completely taking over Syria, while Hezbollah and Iran fought ISIS on other fronts. A decade ago, it was clear the Assad government could not sustain itself.

By 2024, the former al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, Al-Nusra Front, had evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS led a coalition of militias from the Idlib region to take Homs and the the capital of Damascus soon after. At the same time, the United $tates rallied the Revolutionary Commando Army from al Tanf region near the Syrian-Jordan-Iraq border. Many of the 2000 U.$. troops currently in Syria are in al Tanf. Meanwhile, the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continues a war against the SDF in the North of Syria. The Syrian National Army has incorporated many former ISIS soldiers, and threatens to wipe out Kurds in regions bordering Turkey to serve Turkey’s interests in suppressing the Kurdish independence movement. But the U.$. sees SDF territory as theirs, so Turkey is limited by its NATO master on that front.

In coordination with the taking of the capital by HTS, I$rael immediately seized strategic territory in the Golan Heights and destroyed Syria’s military installments (reportedly 90% of their capacity). I$rael has seized the highest point in Syria and territory that was granted to Syria as a buffer zone in a previous war. I$rael is now closer than ever to Damascus, with no Syrian military to stop them. This means the ability of Syria to stand as an independent military force against the U.$./I$rael has been eliminated. This has led HTS to say they will not allow Palestinian militants to train in Syria anymore.

Over the last decade plus, hundreds of armed organizations have operated across Syria; a situation that is hard for us in the United $tates to imagine. The situation continues to be chaotic in Syria, and those much more familiar than us have a hard time knowing what is going on on the ground. It is clear that U.$. intelligence had a good sense of the balance of forces and was able to foster this takeover by HTS and others in very short time.

Short-term Impacts

Despite the reactionary nature of the Assad regime, which led to its quick collapse in December, Syria has served as a base of resistance for the region for over half a century. This is why, in the short-term, we see the fall of Assad as a bad thing for the anti-imperialist movement, despite being inevitable.

Syria was a transit corridor for resources from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, this has been disrupted. Syria can now serve as corridor for I$rael to reach and attack Iran. The overthrow of Assad is another short-term setback in the resistance to U.$. imperialism in the region following I$rael’s successes in decapitating Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. The recent peace deal between Hezbollah and I$rael also indicated a victory for the U.$. camp.

Five days after taking power, HTS declared that all Palestinian resistance forces must demilitarize. Palestinian factions, including Fatah, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), the Saiqa, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Martyr Ali Aswad Brigade, have had a presence in Syria as guests of the government for decades. The refugee camp “Yarmouk”, near Damascus, is the center of the Palestinian diaspora. Beginning with the Nakba in 1948, most Palestinians have been forced off of their land by I$raeli settlers, and therefore live in what are now separate countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. With the peace deal in Lebanon, I$rael is trying to demilitarize Arabs there next. By cutting off the bases of operation of the Palestinian movement and the flow of supplies, I$rael is remaking the region for a complete suppression of the liberation movement.

After more than two years without a president, Lebanon’s parliament chose Joseph Aoun on 9 January 2025. This U.$.-backed candidate clinched the vote after the Hezbollah-favored candidate withdrew. Aoun, like HTS, has pledged to demilitarize any groups outside the Lebanese army. Hezbollah has long been the strongest military force in Lebanon, while participating in a multi-party government. According to the peace deal between I$rael and Hezbollah, I$rael had 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon. They have not done so as Hezbollah has also not demilitarized from the south as agreed to in the deal.

Sanction Wars

While the December events were swift, the overthrow of Assad was a U.$. operation dating back decades, through low intensity military and economic warfare. In 2002 Undersecretary of State John Bolton added Syria to the list of President Bush Jr’s “Axis of Evil” countries, justifying economic sanctions, which the Amerikans get their allies to enforce as well.

Sanctions are economic warfare. Just like when you drop bombs on a country, sanctions often result in suffering and death of the civilian population. The fear-mongering around Russian election interference is a joke compared to what the Amerikans have been doing for decades, starving people to force them to change their political allegiances.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Syria’s oil sales in 2010 would have been around $3.2 billion or 25% of the state’s revenue. But war and sanctions put an end to that within a year. Oil extraction in Syria was first done by an Amerikan beginning in 1956. By 1958, Syria was part of Nasser’s United Arab Republic (UAR), which seized the oil fields and machinery from the Amerikan company. When the Ba’ath Party took over a couple years later, with the dissolution of the UAR, they kept the oil fields nationalized. By 2013, ISIS controlled most of the oil fields and were using them to raise money. In November 2019 Trump said to the press that “We’re keeping the oil, we have the oil, the oil is secure, we left troops behind only for the oil.” Assad stated that ISIS has two partners in stealing the Syrian oil since 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and the Amerikans. China has echoed Assad on this point. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Syria)

The U$ imperialists want to monopolize the global oil supply as much as possible and ensure that all major oil producing economies are selling their oil in U.$. dollars. This allows the U.$. dollar to maintain an inflated value in global commodity exchange (by forcing countries that need to buy oil from OPEC countries to have a stash of U$ currency on hand). A secondary effect is that it makes it harder for countries sanctioned by the U.$. to buy oil (forcing the use of proxies to access U$ currency and do business with OPEC). This allows the Amerikans to artificially control inflation of U$D, while currencies in other countries like Syria, or Nigeria, take on that burden.

The Revolutionary Commando Army, paid by the Amerikans, was making 12 times what the Syrian Army was paying, thanks to inflation crippling the value of the lira, or Syrian pound. This inflation can be blamed on the U.$.-imposed sanctions. However, it is also a characteristic of a capitalist economy. There is a reason why socialist China did not have inflation despite U.$. sanctions on the Communist Party of China.New China’s First Quarter-Century, Foreign Languages Press, Peking 1975 And there is a reason why inflationary forces and financial markets threaten the Chinese economy today, after 50 years of capitalism. Similarly, the Ba’ath economy was susceptible to these problems and more. Nationalist policies can combat the effects of capitalism, but cannot eliminate them like socialism does.

The Limits of Bourgeois Nationalism

The weakness of the bourgeois Syrian state is also reflected in Russia’s unwillingness to get involved and Assad’s sudden fleeing of the country leaving his army with no clear leadership for resistance. If there was a way to maintain Ba’ath rule, Russia would have wanted that. Contrast Assad to Sadaam Hussein in Iraq who faced a trial, and was executed by hanging while calling for a united Arab resistance to U.$. imperialism and a free Arab Palestine. The Ba’ath parties in both countries come from a nominally pan-Arab and nationalist background. But we see how circumstance exposes them as inconsistent allies against imperialism.

When the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party emerged, about a third of the world’s population was living under socialism, most of them in the Soviet Union or China. The Syrian Communist Party was the other party with broad mass support. These influences pushed a pan-Arab line with pro-social economic policies in the early Ba’ath Party. Ba’ath was the radical alternative to Nasserism and originally mobilized the peasantry in Syria via land redistribution. The father of Bashar al-Assad led a coup that abandoned this path, and focused on serving the urban capitalist class. Today the national and regional economic projects of the 1960s are impossible as war and divisions have become dominant under imperialist influence.

The way the Assad regime folded was a sign of its own internal weakness. Of course, this came after 13 years of more or less constant imperialist meddling and instigating of civil war. But the resistance in Gaza has not folded after 75+ years, while the once stable and relatively powerful Syrian government folded in a matter of days. This speaks to the internal contradictions. While parties like Ba’ath and Hezbollah have served to suppress communist organizations, the conditions in Palestine have united the nation to the extent that communists and bourgeois nationalists are waging guerrilla warfare in conjunction against the occupiers just days before a cease fire is expected to begin. Now that Assad’s government has fallen, Syria faces greater chaos, allowing the imperialists to play forces off against each other.

Neo-colony of U.$. or Jihadist Caliphate?

While the general media propaganda in the United $tates has been to celebrate the takeover in Syria, the more thoughtful Amerikans are concerned that HTS is “former al Qaeda.” They see conservative religious views of such groups and lump them in with Christians in the U.$. government who are fighting against abortion rights and diversity. On top of that is the racialized view of Muslims as foreign, other, and dangerous. But for the proletariat “al Qaeda” is not necessarily a negative, and the network continues to capitalize on the perception that they are fighting U.$. (and allied) imperialism.

Some real red flags for the proletariat to look out for are things like doing your first interview on CNN within hours of taking power, moving to neutralize threats to I$rael, letting I$rael seize territories of the former state, and the number 1 red flag to look out for: courting positive business relations with U.$. imperialism. These are all things HTS leaders have already done.

Osama bin Laden is rolling over in his watery grave as these rebranded al Qaeda leaders of HTS have become the tip of the U.$. imperialist spear in Syria. But what appears to be the rise of a clear U.$. puppet, emerged from the anti-imperialist bourgeois nationalism that dominates the Muslim resistance today. Their bourgeois character ultimately comes into contradiction with their nationalist claims.

As Marxists we look at class interests, and class interests in the form of national interests, to determine who are our friends and who are our enemies. And the majority of people in the Levant are proletariat and peasantry. Palestine is clearly included in the proletarian camp, despite their economic structure limiting class development and perhaps being dominated by a lumpen-proletariat or semi-proletariat.

Much has been made of the foreign nature of HTS, that it is a transnational group of ragtag extremists. But this too just feeds into neo-colonial thinking. Expelling the foreigners is progressive when aimed at the imperialists. But this is a specific brand of foreigner. And the imperialists can easily pull together a group of born-and-bred Syrians that will be happy to run the country for their Amerikan sponsors. So the oppressed must guard against this form of narrow nationalism.

Syrian nationalism may turn against HTS, but it is not clear who will take their place and how they will be any better. The national question is not clear in a country whose borders were created by the U.$. and French imperialists in 1948. Like many political forces in the region, the Ba’ath Party came from pan-Arab roots, that see one Arab nation that is destined to dissolve the imperialist imposed boundaries. Syria even briefly formed the United Arab Republic by merging with Egypt towards this goal. More recently, ISIS united broad regions of Iraq and Syria for a short period, though against the will of many in the region. What is clear is that the Arab people of the region share a common interest, and should be working together to meet that common interest. Currently I$rael is crushing the attempts at doing so.

The New “President” of Syria

Abu Mohammad al-Julani is the leader of HTS, who united the various forces that fought to overthrow Assad. He has returned to using his birth name of Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa. While he indicated it would be up to four years before elections would occur again in Syria, National Public Radio quickly began referring to em as the “President of Syria.” The U.$. State Department also lifted the $10 million reward it had long offered for al-Julani’s capture on 20 December 2024, another indication of how the Amerikans are viewing the take over.

In 2021, al-Sharaa did an interview with Frontline where ey said ey was radicalized by the Palestinian Second Intifada, stating, “I started thinking about how I could fulfill my duties, defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders.” Then al-Qaeda’s attacks on 9/11 inspired em to travel to Iraq to fight the U.$. invasion in 2003 as a soldier with al-Qaeda. Ey was arrested by the Amerikans in 2006 and imprisoned for 5 years. Ey was released, coincidentally during the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011 and began immediately working to build al-Qaeda in Syria, which ey called Jabahat al-Nusra, or in the U.$. media referred to as Al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra eventually emerged at the center of power plays between the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The differences between these groups may be mostly about power struggles and not ideology. However, ISIS was initiated by al-Qaeda affiliated people who thought they weren’t moving fast enough to liberate the land. Al-Nusra seemed to have a similar strategy, which is what led to confrontation with ISIS. In the end, HTS was militarily fighting both ISIS and al-Qaeda to govern Idlib province in the years prior to seizing Damascus, while benefiting from Turkish economic support.

U.$. State Department aide Jake Sullivan told Hillary Clinton that “AQ [Al-Qaeda] is on our side in Syria in 2012, referring to the Al-Nusra Front.

State of Imperialist Forces

Russia’s lack of action in Syria, compared to years past, is a sign of their military over-extension with the war in Ukraine. They lost a strategic naval base in the Mediterranean Sea without a fight with the fall of the Assad regime. Like the United $tates, they seemed aware of the Syrian government’s inability to sustain itself and cut its losses, which were significant.

Recently a comrade wrote us asking about what are we waiting for to start the revolution here in occupied Turtle Island. Well a lot of things. From the Russian Revolution, Lenin taught us that a revolutionary situation is defined by the masses and the ruling class realizing the impossibility of continuing in the old way. In addition, an actual end to U.$. imperialism becomes possible when it finds itself over-extended militarily. This is clearly not the case as it is effectively exerting its interests on the other side of the world via proxies like I$rael and Ukraine. While the U.$. is footing the bill, they are doing very little in terms of providing their own military support and are not putting Amerikan lives in jeopardy to do so. This could be to avoid open conflict with Russian troops, but also avoids much of the backlash they faced while occupying Iraq.

The overthrow of Assad with only 2000 U.$. troops in the country is a victory for the imperialists, but we’ll see whether this enough for them to establish a new client state in Syria. Syria has also been a success for the Amerikans in terms of global public opinion. Following the escalated genocide in Gaza over the last 15 months, U.$. public opinion has grown significantly to condemn I$rael, but less so Amerikkka, despite the recognition by most that I$rael is U.$.-funded. In Syria the connection is much less apparent on the one hand, while the predominant sentiment is that the overthrow of Assad was a good thing. This is a big difference from the Amerikan regime change project that overthrew the Ba’ath regime in neighboring Iraq. During the invasion of Iraq, the U.$. was in the position I$rael is today. Today I$rael could fall, and the imperialist superpower lives on.

Axis of Evil - 25 years of Reshaping the Middle East

Following al Qaeda’s attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in 2001, U.$. President George Bush coined the term “Axis of Evil” to refer to Iran, Iraq and North Korea in 2002. While these countries were not united in any way, Bush claimed they were all sponsors of terrorism and manufacturers of “weapons of mass destruction.” In reality their commonality was in their resistance to U.$. imperialism.

This “Axis of Evil” was coined while the “Great Satan” U.$. imperialists were invading Afghanistan, ostensibly for their harboring of al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden. That invasion lasted until 2021, when the former governing Taliban finally returned to power. In those two decades, hundreds of thousands were killed and millions were displaced in Afghanistan. In 2011, the United $tates assassinated bin Laden in neighboring Pakistan. The 9/11 attacks also triggered the United $tates to launch an international prison network made up of CIA “black sites”, in which the Bush regime okayed the CIA to ignore Geneva Convention rules against torture.

After George Bush’s speech, Undersecretary of State John Bolton gave eir own 2002 speech entitled “Beyond the Axis of Evil” that included Cuba, Libya and Syria. In response to the “Axis of Evil” talk, people from these countries began talking about the “Axis of Resistance”, since resisting U.$. imperialist interests was the thing these countries had in common. Iran eventually took up this term around its informal alliance in opposition to the U.$. imperialist outpost of I$rael.

Before Syria’s takeover this month, Syria was the only state power, other than Iran, to serve as a training ground and supply source for the other members. Ansar Allah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Palestine all participate in state power or at least dual power. Other members of this alliance include Shia militias in Iraq, other national liberation forces in Palestine, and now emerging militias in Syria that oppose the recent takeover.

In addition to opposing I$rael and the United $tates, the Axis of Resistance has generally opposed Salafist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which affiliate with Sunni Islam. Salafism is a revival of Sunni Islam that attempts to connect to its “authentic” traditions by opposing anything that didn’t exist in the times of the prophet Mohammed; a truly reactionary ideology that wants to take society backwards.

Despite Syria’s important role in supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon and resistance forces in Palestine and being on the U.$. “Axis of Evil” list, Syria actually served the U.$. imperialists in their “War on Terror” in Afghanistan and Iraq. The imperialists invaded Iraq (again) in 2003 under the pretense of weapons of mass destruction, which was later proved to be a complete lie. During this period CIA black sites were operating in countries across the world, including Syria. These “black sites” were a secretive international prison system focused on torture, interrogation and disappearances.

While some U.$. media coverage of the freeing of prisoners in Syria was proven to be fabricated, there were many people who suffered under the Assad regime who are understandably celebrating or at least relieved. While we criticized imperialist meddling against Assad and recognized the Ba’ath government as useful to the resistance in the region, its failure to serve the people led to its demise. As always, we join in the call of the resistance forces in recognizing the right to self-determination of the Syrian people and opposing all imperialist occupation of portions of Syria and imperialist meddling in the economy and resources of the region. Much struggle will be needed to make that a reality.

^{Note: Our citations for this article are not up to our usual standards, but we believe most of the facts here to be uncontroversial and easily verifiable.}