November 14, 1948
[This commentary was written by Comrade Mao Tse-tung for the Hsinhua News
Agency. Here Comrade Mao Tse-tung, basing himself on the new situation, that
is, the change in the relation of forces between the enemy and ourselves
after the Lisohsi-Shenyang campaign, made a new estimate of the time needed
to win victory in the People's War of Liberation and pointed out that the
reactionary rule of the Kuomintang could be overthrown in no more than a
year from November 1948. Subsequent developments in China's military situation
fully confirmed his prediction.]
The military situation in China has reached a new turning point and the balance of forces between the two sides in the war has undergone a fundamental change. The People's Liberation Army, long superior in quality, has now become superior in numbers as well. This is a sign that the victory of the Chinese revolution and the realization of peace in China are at hand.
At the end of the second year of the war, that is, at the end of June this year, the Kuomintang army still had a total of some 3,650,000 men. This was 650,000 less than the 4,300,000 men the Kuomintang had in July 1946 when it started the country-wide civil war. The Kuomintang recruited about 2,440,000 men during the two years of war, which is the reason why the decrease was only 650,000, although in that period approximately 3,090,000 were wiped out or captured, or deserted (2,640,000 were wiped out or captured). Recently a sudden change took place. In the first four months of the third year of the war, from July 1 to November 2 when Shenyang was liberated, the Kuomintang army lost 1,000,000 men. Its replacements during these four months have not yet been ascertained; supposing it was able to recruit 300,000 men, then the net decrease would be 700,000. Thus the whole of the Kuomintang's armed forces -- army, navy and air force, regulars and irregulars, combat troops and men in the rear-service establishments -- are now only some 2,900,000. On the other hand, the People's Liberation Army, which had 1,200,000 men in June 1946, grew to 2,800,000 in June 1948 and has now increased to more than 3,000,000. Thus, the numerical superiority long enjoyed by the Kuomintang army has rapidly turned into inferiority. This is the result of heroic fighting by the People's Liberation Army during the past four months in all the war theatres of the country; it is especially the result of the Sui-Ki and Tsinan campaigns [1] on the southern front and of the Chinchow, Changchun, Liaohsi and Shenyang campaigns [2] on the northern front. Up to the end of June this year, the Kuomintang still had designations for 285 divisions because it had frantically incorporated its irregulars into its regular forces. In these four months, the battalions and larger units wiped out by the People's Liberation Army totalled 8, divisions, including 63 whole divisions.
Accordingly, the war will be much shorter than we originally estimated. The original estimate was that the reactionary Kuomintang government could be completely overthrown in about five years, beginning from July 1946. As we now see it, only another year or so may be needed to overthrow it completely. A longer time will be needed, however, to eliminate the reactionary forces in all parts of the country and complete the liberation of the people.
The enemy is collapsing rapidly, but the Communists, the People's Liberation
Army and people of all walks of life throughout the country must continue
to unite as one man and redouble their efforts; only thus can we finally
and completely wipe out the reactionary forces and build a united, democratic
people's republic in the whole country.
NOTES
1. The Sui-Ki campaign, also known as the Eastern Honan campaign, was fought by the People's Liberation Army in the sector comprising Kaifeng, Suihsien and Kihsien. The campaign started on June 17, 1948. On June 22 our army captured Kaifeng. To save his critical military situation, Chiang Kai-shek went to the front, took personal command and mustered 3 armies under Chiu Ching-chuan, Ou Shou-nien and Huang Po-tao to start an attack on Kaifeng from several directions. Six columns of our Eastern China Field Army, 2 columns of our Central Plains Field Army and our Kwangtung-Kwangsi Column surrounded the armies under Ou Shou-nien and Huang Po-tao in the Suihsien-Kihsien sector and, after nine days and nights of fierce fighting (June 27-July 6), they wiped out 2 divisions, or 6 brigades, of Ou Shou-nien's army and a part of Huang Po-tao's army, a total of over 90,000 men. Ou Shou-nien, army commander, and Shen Cheng-nien, Commander of the Reorganized 75th Division, were captured. For the Tsinan campaign, see "The Concept of Operations for the Huai-Hai Campaign", Note 2, p. 282 of this volume.
2. The Chinchow, Changchun, Liaoshi and Shenyang campaigns in northeastern China, taken together, were called the Liaohsi-Shenyang campaign. See "The Concept of Operations for the Liaohsi-Shenyang Campaign", Note 1, pp. 265-66 of this volume.
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